The last couple days have been classic, and I will admit to having fallen prey to the group thinking. Markets that go up, do so when the general mkt is nervous about all of the things that can go wrong. Think recently about sub prime debt, Iran, housing, Iraq, the deficit, etc etc. These are all important, but when these are well known, and the market doesn't go down, that is a sign that we are about to pop, and pop we did. I think we would be higher if Gentle Ben were not slated to speak to Congress today and tomorrow and one never is quite sure what he will say that might move the market. I suspect any exceptional or new hawkish language from him will knock the market lower, but should it sell off, it will be a buying opportunity for sure.
I took some profit in WCI today, and took a little off of my AUY position. I still like the market here and think we trade higher. It is interesting to see how the VIX has gotten pounded in the last couple days. How quickly complacency sets right back into the market. Think leaps are a bargain here.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Nice start to your blog, Greg. As someone who has a close eye on the VIX, I was thinking about calls that are more than a couple of months out. The problem is that even the Nov 15s are at 2.55 - 2.65 with the VIX under 10.00. That is an implied volatility of 111, which is a lot of premium, so I'm looking at a call back spread strategy instead: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2007/02/waiting-for-godot.html
Feel free to drop in and contribute any time, as I am sure to do here.
Cheers,
-Bill
Bill, thanks for your thoughts. No doubt you take a much more sophisticated view of options than I do. I begin with a macro view and then if options are cheap, in my unsophisticated viewpoint, I buy them. I like the CSCO, yhoo and intc options right now. If I buy the way out, deep in the money ones, I get the leverage of the option with less capital invested.
Post a Comment